Hispanics catch up to blacks in census

U.S. surge in '90s outpaced expectations

03/08/2001

By Michelle Mittelstadt and Kim Horner / The Dallas Morning News

Once on pace to become the nation's largest minority by 2005, the Hispanic population has surged into a near-tie with black Americans, fueled by a 58 percent growth rate during the 1990s.

Preliminary data from the 2000 census estimates the Hispanic population at 35.3 million people, or about 12.5 percent of the nation's 281 million residents. The black population is estimated between 34.7 million and 36.4 million, with the exact total as yet uncertain because the 2000 census was the first in which respondents were allowed to check off more than one race.

The Census Bureau is expected to offer a more detailed snapshot of the nation's racial makeup next week, and experts caution the Hispanic and black figures contained in a census report last week may be subject to change.

That's in part because Hispanics can be of any race and the Census Bureau has yet to release data showing how many blacks also described themselves as Hispanic.

A higher-than-anticipated number of blacks identified themselves on their 2000 census form as belonging to more than one racial or ethnic group. More than 1.7 million black respondents also checked at least one other race.

Whatever the outcome, the finding that the Hispanic population is growing at a faster rate than anticipated has broad political and socioeconomic implications. Just months ago, the Census Bureau pegged the Latino population at 32.8 million – 2.5 million less than the official census figure.

"I think culturally it'll have a significant impact," said Dr. Vincent Ramos, Texas director for the League of United Latin American Citizens. "It reinforces the idea that Latinos are going to have a much stronger and obvious influence on what happens in our communities."

Political strategists, marketers and elected officials pay close heed to the census figures, as do minority-rights advocates eager to quantify their communities' clout – and fortify demands for future political and economic representation.

"We have nowhere near the clout a population of 35 million should have in terms of political representation, in terms of where we should be in economic terms, in terms of education," said Lisa Navarrete of the National Council of La Raza.

"The large numbers have been ones that certainly marketers have been noticing and politicians have been noticing," Ms. Navarrete said. But, she added, "Numbers alone don't guarantee us any clout."

Latinos must cement their presence at the ballot box, and that effect has been increasingly felt since the latter 1990s, she and others said.

Other influence

The census findings will translate into changes in other areas as well, said state Rep. Domingo García, D-Dallas.

"I think this means we're going to have more diversity in terms of how we deal with issues ranging from music and food to politics," he said.

The population gains should fuel increased Latino representation on city councils and school boards, said Dallas lawyer and civic leader Adelfa Callejo. "We do need the political representation we deserve," she said. "We're underrepresented."

The figures also illustrate a need for more Hispanics in non-elected positions such as police officers, firefighters and teachers, she said.

"The point is we pay taxes, and we're entitled to the delivery of those services, and that's not being done," Ms. Callejo added.

Antonio González, president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project, said the Hispanic population boom tracked by the census is in the abstract a positive.

"We get bragging rights sooner to being the Number 1 minority in the country," said Mr. González, whose nonprofit organization encourages Hispanic voter participation. "We're going to get it anyway, though."

The census numbers have yet to tell the tale, however, of how much clout the Hispanic community will have, Mr. González said.

"We really have to find out where those population numbers are. If they are sort of spread around, in this new trend we're seeing of Latinos in North Carolina, Latinos in Iowa, Latinos in Maine, then that doesn't translate into more clout," he said. "To get clout, you have to reach critical mass."

However, if Hispanics remain in the states where they traditionally have clustered – California, Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois in particular – "then it translates into more political clout," Mr. González said.

The Census Bureau on Wednesday began its state-by-state rollout of population data, with the Texas figures expected to be dispatched to state officials in Austin by week's end. By law, all states must have their numbers in hand by April 1 – at which point, a detailed national snapshot broken down by race, ethnicity and other characteristics will be available.

Growing fast

The Census Bureau projects that Hispanics will more than triple in number by 2050, accounting for one-fourth of the U.S. population. Demographers envision a "minority-majority" United States by then.

Today, only California, New Mexico and Hawaii have "minority-majority" populations. Texas could join them within four years, years ahead of earlier projections. Dallas, Houston and San Antonio already have minority-majority populations.

Although the Hispanic population may be overtaking black Americans as the nation's largest minority, few in the Latino or black community are portraying the development as a setback.

"I certainly don't see this in any way, shape or form as any kind of a zero-sum game," said David Bositis, a senior researcher for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington think tank that studies issues of concern to black Americans. "I would say the significance for the black community is a positive."

That, Mr. Bositis said, is because the minority population as a whole is surging and because the Latino and black communities share common goals and interests.

He expressed some frustration that media interest in the census figures has been framed as a Hispanic-versus-black issue.

"I'm annoyed with getting these calls from people saying 'How are blacks going to feel about this?"' he said. "By and large, politically blacks and Hispanics are much closer than either blacks and whites or Hispanics and Anglos."

Ms. Navarrete of the National Council of La Raza took pains to say any gains realized by Hispanics as a result of population growth should not come at the expense of the black community.

"What we need to do is be ever-vigilant to not have people pit us against each other," she said. "We don't want this to be portrayed as a horse race. ... It's just an acknowledgment of the demographic changes."