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Ask Gary West

04/13/2001

Could you explain what a track bias is, and does Lone Star have a prevalent track bias? – Mark Lowry

Like the real world, racing surfaces aren't always fair. Wind, gravity, water and use can move surface material around, leaving some paths deeper than others, some faster than others. And following a rain, the track may not drain or dry evenly, and again some paths can be faster than others. The result is a bias. A bias is unusual. But at some time or other, there's a bias at every racetrack in America.

Obviously, a handicapper who can spot a bias has a tremendous advantage. If, for example, the inside paths of the track are faster than the outside, then that speedster breaking from the No. 2 post position, who under usual circumstances would be only a pace factor, might suddenly discover the ability to carry his speed into the winner's circle, and at odds of 10-1.

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But identifying a bias requires horseplayers to employ the most neglected tool in handicapping: observation. They should watch the races and the replays carefully to see where the first few finishers were placed on the track throughout the race.

Saving charts of races also becomes important so that the handicapper can look back and identify specious performances – victories achieved and losses suffered because of the bias. The horse that rallied strongly to finish fifth on a day dominated by inside speed actually ran much better than might first appear.

As for Lone Star, so far during the young season, no strong or prevalent bias has been evident, but there have been a few days when horses rallying outside seemed to have a slight edge.

How do you handicap a horse moving down in class, or what factors do you take into account? And do you typically avoid betting on a horse going up or down in class? – Ron Morris

"Class" is rather difficult to define, of course. What is a "classy" individual, and what made him "classy"? Many people consider determination and courage to be components of class. I also tend to think that the ability to overcome pace, whether it be fast or slow, is a factor in class.

And as you use "class" here, you mean the company a horse keeps, or its claiming level. Well, generally, a horse that drops in class, or takes a step down the claiming ladder, after a poor performance is not very attractive. He's dropping because his performance level is dropping and because he's not in good form and because, frankly, his connections are willing to sell him. A sharp horse, on the other hand, might easily adapt to a step up the claiming ladder.

It's useful, however, to know trainers' tendencies. Some trainers, such as Cole Norman, won't hesitate to drop a horse in the claiming ranks if that's what's necessary to get a victory.

What's the difference between a quinella and an exacta box? Is the payoff the same? – Jennie Yunyongying

The quinella and an exacta box are the same only in that bettors will cash if their horses finish first and second, but otherwise the bets differ. They represent two separate betting pools, and so the payoffs can vary, sometimes dramatically. Generally, if you feel strongly about a horse, then you're more wise to bet him on top in the exacta than to bet a quinella. And if you're using a long shot, you're more wise to bet an exacta box than a quinella.

Got a question for Gary West? E-mail him at gwest









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